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Tahoe Weather

TAHOE NUGGET #276: TAHOE WINTER UPDATE

It’s no secret that it’s been a very stormy winter in the Tahoe Sierra. In fact, snowfall totals during the month of January set new records at Donner Pass, Tahoe City and most ski resorts. But the real story in winter 2017 is hydrologic. Nearly a dozen Pacific-bred Atmospheric Rivers have produced phenomenal amounts of precipitation in a short period of time.

If you look to the far right-hand side of the graph, you can see how much more snow fell this January at the Central Sierra Snow Laboratory near Donner Pass than the preceding 45 years’ worth of Januaries. The 237 inches of snow blew away the old Jan. record set at the Lab in 1982. It also easily beat the all-time monthly snowfall record there, measured during the “Miracle March” of 1992.

Carnelian Bay is definitely not the snowiest location in the Tahoe Basin, but it has has really piled up this winter in the "banana belt." Peak ridge wind gusts this February reached 199 mph! The strongest storms that crash into the Tahoe Sierra reach Category 3 Hurricane strength. 

January's heavy snowfall set the stage for long power outages, extensive road closures and frequent avalanches.

Resort totals are impressive: Alpine Meadows & Squaw Valley report more than 47 feet so far. Mt. Rose, where its high elevation converts mild AR rain to snow, leads regional ski areas with nearly 54 feet. Snowpack base amounts at Tahoe Basin resorts range from 8 to 22 feet deep.

In 2015, many streams, rivers and reservoirs in Northern California were near record lows; today officials are releasing torrents of water to make room for the looming spring melt of the massive mountain snowpack. The current “snow water equivalent” (SWE) in the expansive Northern Sierra pack is approaching 6.5 feet. At this time the federal water master for Lake Tahoe is releasing 500 cubic feet-per-second out of Big Blue to make room for the coming melt.

In early December 2016, the outlet of Lake Tahoe was just dirt with a lake level below the natural rim. Since October 1, Tahoe has risen nearly 4 feet and is now at 6,226.81 feet above mean sea level. Approximately 139 billion gallons of water have been added to Big Blue so far this season. That’s enough to supply the average annual water consumption for 435,500 four-member households. 

These piers were high and dry last year. Given that the snow water equivalent (SWE) of the Tahoe Basin snowpack is more than 230% of normal, it’s a foregone conclusion that the lake will rise to its maximum legal limit by this summer. It will be the first time since 2006.

Still on pace to be the wettest winter in the Northern Sierra since 1922. Prodigious precipitation during the past 90 days has virtually extinguished a desiccating 5-year drought throughout most of California and Nevada. In January, much of that moisture fell as snow thereby ensuring a strong spring runoff.

Lake Tahoe’s water level is rising rapidly. Tahoe City has recorded more than 56 inches of precipitation in the form of rain or SWE. That is the greatest amount for October through February on record, beating the previous benchmark set in 1969 by more than 10 inches. Even without additional moisture through March, this year already beats the 6-month record by 2 inches, set in 1982.  

Snowfall on Donner Pass this winter has been epic, but still not enough to make the Top 10 list in SNOWBOUND! 

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Categories
Tahoe Snowstorms

TAHOE NUGGET #275: 2017 EPIC WEST COAST WINTER ROARS ON!

The weather headlines may have subsided for the past week or so, but the Storm King is back on a rampage this week. Multiple feet of snow are expected in the highest elevations with 8 to 10 inches of precipitation (water) likely along the Sierra Crest. On Mt. Shasta’s upper mountain another 10 feet of snow is coming.

This satellite image on Feb. 6 depicts the long fetch of water vapor being transported to the Pacific Coast by a strong Atmospheric River. Depending on duration and intensity, weather systems like this can dump 20 to 40 inches of water in some locations over the course of a week or more. Heavy rain and high snow levels make them the #1 cause of winter flooding in the West. They can have the same impact as a major hurricane or strong tropical storm.

The good news for those of us suffering from shovel fatigue is that due to the subtropical origin of this approaching Atmospheric River freezing levels will be primarily above 7,500 feet and the bulk of the moisture this week will fall as rain in Truckee and Lake Tahoe communities. Today NWS forecasters had us lake level people pegged for 8 to 10 inches of wet snow, but luckily for us in Carnelian Bay it has been mostly “snain” — rain and melting snow — that requires minimal management. Just 500 feet higher heavy snow is falling.

As yet another Atmospheric River surges into the West Coast flood watches and warning flags are flying over the California Sierra. Again today high winds have blown down some Tahoe resort operations on the upper slopes where the best quality snow lies.

Hydrologists and weather forecasters are keeping a close eye on freezing levels this week as they watch to see how the snowpack absorbs the torrential rain expected. Streams and rivers are already running high due to the antecedent wet conditions.

Severe weather this winter has hindered mountain ops at some resorts, particularly those located along the Sierra Crest where volatile storm dynamics are much more impactful than in other areas. Ridge gusts alone have exceeded 125 mph in recent storms — tough conditions to run a chairlift or perform avalanche control. But when conditions clear, the skiing and riding has been stellar as here at Alpine Meadows last week.

Surface reservoirs in much of the West have rebounded to healthy levels, but underground aquifers in California have yet to show the bump expected from the near record levels of moisture this winter. Ground water supplies in the Sierra and Western Nevada should do well as the massive mountain snowpack begins to melt this spring. 

Despite the much improved conditions, it seems likely that California’s governor Jerry Brown will be reluctant to declare the drought entirely over as he wants aggressive water conservation to become the norm in this heavily populated, drought prone state.

For the first half of this winter the Northern Sierra has been trailing only two seasons that received greater early precipitation — 1996-97 & 1955-56 — both major flood years. We’ve been close to severe flood levels already this winter, but the Truckee River has crested just shy of causing significant damage. So far.

Here's where we're at: By Jan. 31, 1997, 59.4 inches of precipitation were measured across the Northern Sierra. By the same day in 1956, nearly 56 inches had been tallied. They are the two wettest starts to a winter since 1922. As of early today (Feb. 6), 2017 is around 58 inches for the season.

In Feb.1997, precipitation rates fell off a cliff so we’ll probably outpace that exceptional year after this week’s moisture is measured. In Feb.1956, the N.S. Index averaged a solid 10 inches of precipitation so the race for #1 wettest in the first 5 months of a Water Year is still on! (2017 versus 1956). 

FYI: Neither 1956 nor 1997 made it to the Top 10 wettest seasons at Donner Pass.

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