Hydrologic conditions are ripe today and tomorrow for a major flood in the Tahoe Sierra after previous cold storms dumped close to 8 feet of snow on area resorts this week. Now, temperatures have warmed considerably since early this week as a potent Atmospheric River of moisture surges into the West Coast. During a 36 hour period that began last night we're expecting between 6 to 12 inches of water, mostly rain below 8,000 feet in elevation. NWS forecasters are warning that rivers and streams are at high risk of flooding, similar to the 2005-06 event which caused $300 million in damage to California.
Tahoe has received record amounts of precipitation so far this winter. This graphic indicates how much snow fell in little more than 4 days earlier this week. Squaw Valley USA recorded 94 inches in the past 7 days and we are expecting heavy snowfall on and off all this upcoming week. This Nugget is being rushed out the door as the power has already flickered several times this morning.
Here in the "Banana Belt" in Carnelian Bay we picked up only 3 feet of snow during the storms this week. First "major" snow event at lake level this winter. Snow levels have trended higher this year due to the prominence of subtropical Atmospheric Rivers.
Placer County's snow management is second to none. Within a day or so after the snow stopped falling this rotary snowplow was grooming the residential streets of Carnelian Bay.
This is today's infrared satellite image from 8 kilometers above the planet's surface. It shows the classic synoptic pattern of an Atmospheric River with moisture surging into California. A stalled, deep low pressure system off the coast of Canada is spinning in a counter-clockwise rotation bringing copious moisture up from the subtropics. If the cold Alaskan low was closer snow levels would be lower and the Tahoe Sierra would be experiencing many feet of snow as opposed to flood potential.
Statistically, the Truckee River experiences a damaging flood every 9 years or so. It's been 11 years since the 2005-06 event. This storm is right on time! This flood warning is still in the process of verifying as heavy rain and wind continues to slam the Sierra today and tonight. Depending on the actual magnitude of this "wet mantle" flood, a follow-up Nugget will draw a comparison between this event and several past major floods. Many of which also occurred duing ENSO-neutral or weak La Niña episodes. Stay tuned.
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